A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
